A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
